Northern lights · Thu 12 Nov, updated 18:24
A long shot tonight, and only from the far north (Kp up to 1.7).
This uses NOAA’s Kp forecast plus the cloud forecast for each town. If the forecast jumps, this page will too.
Tonight, town by town
| Town | Aurora | Kp needed | Cloud this evening | Clearest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerwick | long shot | ~3 | 40% | 19:00 (31%) |
| Kirkwall | long shot | ~3 | 48% | 18:00 (38%) |
| Inverness | unlikely | ~4 | 32% | 18:00 (14%) |
| Aberdeen | unlikely | ~4 | 29% | 18:00 (19%) |
| Edinburgh | unlikely | ~4 | 8% | 18:00 (2%) |
| Glasgow | unlikely | ~4 | 5% | 18:00 (2%) |
| Belfast | unlikely | ~5 | 4% | 18:00 (0%) |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | unlikely | ~5 | 5% | 20:00 (2%) |
| York | unlikely | ~6 | 20% | 23:00 (0%) |
| Manchester | unlikely | ~6 | 1% | 20:00 (0%) |
| Birmingham | unlikely | ~6 | 0% | 18:00 (0%) |
| Norwich | unlikely | ~6 | 33% | 06:00 (1%) |
| Cardiff | unlikely | ~7 | 0% | 18:00 (0%) |
| London | unlikely | ~7 | 1% | 22:00 (0%) |
| Brighton | unlikely | ~7 | 0% | 18:00 (0%) |
| Plymouth | unlikely | ~7 | 0% | 18:00 (0%) |
Kp forecast, next three days
Bars are three-hour blocks out of 9. Faded bars have already happened. Kp 5 or more (gold) is a geomagnetic storm.
Questions
What is Kp?
Kp is a 0–9 scale of how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is. The higher it is, the further south the aurora can reach. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts it in three-hour blocks.
What Kp do I need to see the aurora from my town?
As a rough rule, it shows low on the northern horizon when Kp reaches about (66 − your geomagnetic latitude) ÷ 2. That’s about 3–4 for Shetland, 5 for northern Scotland, 6 for northern England and 7 for southern England. It’s a guide, not a promise.
Which way should I look?
North, from somewhere dark with a low northern horizon, after it gets properly dark. Phone cameras often pick up a glow your eyes can’t.
How accurate are aurora forecasts?
Not very, beyond a few hours. The Kp forecast for later tonight can change a lot, so check again before you go out. That’s why we only ever say “possible”.